Knowledge · 50 questions · ~15 min

Confidence Interval Calibration Test

For each question, give a lower bound and upper bound such that you are 75% sure the true answer falls within your range. In other words, you should expect to be wrong on about 12–13 out of 50 questions.

A perfectly calibrated person has exactly 75% of answers inside their intervals. Most people make their intervals too narrow — they are overconfident about how precisely they know things.