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Knowledge · 50 questions · ~14 min
Confidence Interval Calibration Test
For each question, give a lower bound and upper bound such that you are 75% sure the true answer falls within your range. In other words, you should expect to be wrong on about 12–13 out of 50 questions.
A perfectly calibrated person has exactly 75% of answers inside their intervals. Most people make their intervals too narrow — they are overconfident about how precisely they know things.
A perfectly calibrated person has exactly 75% of answers inside their intervals. Most people make their intervals too narrow — they are overconfident about how precisely they know things.
Almost done!
Two optional questions, asked once: your age and sex let the results be broken down by who took the test.
Sex as at birth; gender as you identify. Languages you grew up speaking; several are fine, separated by commas. Leave blank anything you would rather not say.